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i Opinion Leadership and Social Contagion in New Product Diffusion Raghuram Iyengar The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, riyengar@wharton.upenn.edu Christophe Van den Bulte The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, vdbulte@wharton.upenn.edu ...

[2] S Aral, L Muchnik, and A Sundararajan. Distinguishing influence-based contagion from homophily-driven diffusion in dynamic networks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106(51):21544, 2009. [ bib ]
[3] NA Christakis and JH Fowler. The collective dynamics of smoking in a large social network. New England journal of medicine, 358(21):2249, 2008. [ bib ]
[4] D Centola. The spread of behavior in an online social network experiment. Science, Jan 2010. [ bib | http ]
How do social networks affect the spread of behavior ? A popular hypothesis states that networks with many clustered ties and a high degree of separation will be less effective for behavioral diffusion than networks in which locally redundant ties are rewired to provide shortcuts ...

[5] TW Valente. Social network thresholds in the diffusion of innovations. Social Networks, 18(1):69-89, 1996. [ bib ]
[6] Shawndra Hill, Foster Provost, and Chris Volinsky. Network-based marketing: Identifying likely adopters via consumer networks. Statistical Science, 21(2):256-276, May 2006. [ bib | http ]
"Network-based marketing" refers to a collection of marketing techniques that take advantage of links between consumers to increase sales. We concentrate on the consumer networks formed using direct interactions (e.g., communications) between consumers. We survey the diverse literature on such marketing with an emphasis on the statistical methods used and the data to which these methods have been applied. We also provide a discussion of challenges and opportunities for this burgeoning research topic. Our survey highlights a gap in the literature. Because of inadequate data, prior studies have not been able to provide direct, statistical support for the hypothesis that network linkage can directly affect product/service adoption. Using a new data set that represents the adoption of a new telecommunications service, we show very strong support for the hypothesis. Specifically, we show three main results: (1) "Network neighbors"-those consumers linked to a prior customer-adopt the service at a rate 3-5 times greater than baseline groups selected by the best practices of the firm's marketing team. In addition, analyzing the network allows the firm to acquire new customers who otherwise would have fallen through the cracks, because they would not have been identified based on traditional attributes. (2) Statistical models, built with a very large amount of geographic, demographic and prior purchase data, are significantly and substantially improved by including network information. (3) More detailed network information allows the ranking of the network neighbors so as to permit the selection of small sets of individuals with very high probabilities of adoption.

Keywords: targeted marketing
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B. Ryan, N. Gross. Rural Sociology, Vol. 8, No. 1. (1943), pp. 15-24. diffusion bibtex-import.

[8] Michael Kearns and Jinsong Tan. Biased voting and the democratic primary problem. INTERNET AND NETWORK ECONOMICS, Jan 2008. [ bib | .pdf ]
... Michael Kearns and Jinsong Tan ... δ > 0. Invoking Lemma 1 shows that it takes exponential time to hit s0 starting from state si (where i ≥ 1). Therefore, it takes exponential time to reach a consensus given that one starts with a coloring where all nodes ... 646 M. Kearns and J. Tan ...

[9] K Chaudhuri and F Chung Graham.... A network coloring game. INTERNET AND NETWORK ECONOMICS, Jan 2008. [ bib | .pdf ]
... Abstract. We analyze a network coloring game which was first pro- posed by Michael Kearns and others in their experimental study of dy- namics and behavior in social networks. In each round of the game, each player, as a ...

[10] J. H Fowler and N. A Christakis. Dynamic spread of happiness in a large social network: longitudinal analysis over 20 years in the framingham heart study. BMJ, 337(dec04 2):a2338-a2338, Dec 2008. [ bib | DOI ]
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... Luce RD,; Raiffa H. (1957) Games and Decisions: Introduction and critical survey (Wiley, New York). ↵: Kearns M,; Suri S,; Montfort N. (2006) An experimental study of the coloring problem on human subject networks. Science 313:824-827. ...

[12] S Aral and D Walker. Creating social contagion through viral product design: A randomized trial of peer influence in networks. Proceedings of the 31th Annual International Conference on Information Systems, 2010. [ bib ]
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Opinions and Social Pressure Solomon E. Asch Exactly what is the effect of the opinions of others on our own? In other words, how strong is the urge toward social conformity? The question is approached by means of some unusual experiments. That social influences shape every ...

[15] S Judd and M Kearns.... Behavioral dynamics and influence in networked coloring and consensus. Proceedings of the ..., Jan 2010. [ bib | http ]
We report on human-subject experiments on the problems of coloring (a social differentiation task) and consensus (a social agreement task) in a networked setting. Both tasks can be viewed as coordination games, and despite their cognitive similarity, we find that within a ...

[16] S Aral. Identifying social influence: A comment on opinion leadership and social contagion in new product diffusion. Marketing Sci, 2010. [ bib ]
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[21] M Kearns... and S Suri.... An experimental study of the coloring problem on human subject networks. Science, Jan 2006. [ bib | http ]
Theoretical work suggests that structural properties of naturally occurring networks are important in shaping behavior and dynamics. However, the relationships between structure and behavior are difficult to establish through empirical studies, because the networks in such studies ...

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